2021 MLB playoffs preview – projectrethink.org

The MLB playoffs are set to begin on October 2nd, with the World Series scheduled for October 23rd. This year’s postseason will feature a number of compelling storylines and teams, including the Milwaukee Brewers and their historic season, the Houston Astros who have won over 100 games in a single season for the first time in history, and the New York Yankees who clinched home-field advantage throughout the American League playoffs.

The mlb playoff bracket 2021 is the most anticipated baseball tournament of all time. This year, with a new format and no World Series, this tournament will be even more interesting.

The MLB postseason is here. Are you prepared for all of the postseason action?

The Boston Red Sox defeated the New York Yankees in the AL Wild Card Game on Tuesday, capping a race to the finish that saw the last The American League is a professional baseball league in the wild-card berth determined on the final day of the regular season. The San Francisco Giants, Dodgers of Los Angeles, and Tampa Bay Rays, all of whom are coming off 100-win seasons, are among the nine clubs left pursuing World Series success this October.

Are they the three teams to beat, or will the playoffs be ruled by someone else?

Bradford Doolittle, Jeff Passan, and David Schoenfield, all MLB specialists, discuss in-depth on everything from matches and names to keys and extremely bold predictions for each club. Doolittle has also estimated the chances of each team winning the championship, as well as every conceivable matchup in each round versus every opponent.

107-55 | NL West champions | World Series chances of 20.4 percent

Rounding up the odds

48.5 percent vs. LAD | 65.6 percent vs. STL in the NLDS

NLCS: 62.4 percent against MIL | 65.8% vs ATL

Why they may be able to go far: This season, every baseball club had a losing record in games when their opponents scored the first run. The Giants were no exception, with a record in those games that was typical of postseason clubs. San Francisco, on the other hand, dominated the field when it came to winning games in which it drew first blood. How? It didn’t hurt that the Giants’ bullpen had the best ERA and WHIP in the league. And there is the heart of the matter: If the Giants can take an early lead, Gabe Kapler’s bullpen should be able to finish the job. Doolittle’s quote

What might send them packing early: Regardless of what we believed heading into the season, the Giants’ dossier has nothing that points to them being a fluke. San Francisco has a fantastic record in one-run games, but even if they had won them at a lesser rate, they would have reached 100 victories. No, the Giants’ issue is duplicating what they did earlier in the season: beating the Dodgers. The Dodgers are as good as or better than the Giants in every area in which they excel. The bullpen may be an exception, in which case we direct you to the previous item. Doolittle’s quote

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Because that’s how the Giants operate, it’s just as likely to be the 26th guy on the roster as Brandon Crawford or Kris Bryant. Ace Kevin Gausman hasn’t been as successful in the second half (4.42 ERA,.276 batting average allowed) as he was in the first (1.73 ERA,.159 batting average allowed), but he’s the starter most likely to go on a run and pitch deep into games with a splitter that has remained a wipeout offering (.136 average against it on the season). Schoenfield’s

The Giants’ most thrilling aspect: despite the fact that Brandon Belt led the club with “just” 29 home runs — and despite the fact that he is out with a fractured thumb — the Giants still lead the National League in home runs. So the interesting part is that power may come from anywhere in the lineup and from anybody. With a platoon of LaMonte Wade Jr. and Darin Ruf at first base, they have a ready answer even without Belt (or Wilmer Flores). The Giants’ offense had its finest month in September, and they’ve showed no signs of slowing down. Schoenfield’s

If the Giants go beyond the division series, youngster Camilo Doval will get the last out in the NLCS and send them to the World Series. Passan –

95-67 | NL Central champions | World Series chances of 8.7%

Rounding up the odds

54.6 percent in the NLDS vs. ATL

36.5 percent against. LAD in the NLCS | 37.6 percent vs. SF in the NLCS

WS: 42.7 percent vs TB | 46.8% against HOU | 49.5 percent against CHW | 59.6% against BOS | 59.9% against NYY

Why they may be able to go far: Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee’s big three rotation, have been among the best in baseball this season. To put it in context, consider the following: The Brewers are ranked eighth in baseball-reference.com’s wins above average chart, with a 9.8 WAA. Milwaukee’s starting pitching has a WAA of 10.4 while the rest of the squad pulls the team into the center. Is it conceivable that with the bullpen missing a major arm and having showed leaks recently, efficiency-obsessed Craig Counsell would ask more of his rotation than in previous postseasons? He may not have much of a choice. Doolittle’s quote

What might cause them to return home early: Milwaukee was sixth in bullpen ERA and first in strikeout rate among relievers through the end of August. The strikeout percentage has stayed excellent since then, but the bullpen ERA has risen to above 5.00. Fortunately, part of that number stems from bad pitching by guys who will not be on the postseason roster. Unfortunately, Devin Williams, the star high-leverage righty who fractured his hand punching a wall and obviously never watched “Bull Durham” to learn the importance of avoiding striking objects with your throwing hand, will be one of those non-rostered guys. Josh Hader is still in charge, but he needs assistance. Doolittle’s quote

Corbin Burnes, the NL’s most probable October hero, topped the league in ERA, Ks per nine, walks per nine, and home runs per nine (just seven in 167 innings). Since Walter Johnson in 1913, no pitcher has ever led his league in only SO/9 and BB/9. His last 12 outings with the Brewers were all victories. Burnes only made two starts all season on four days’ rest, so he’ll have to get used to pitching on less rest, but no pitcher in 2021 dominated across the board like he did. Schoenfield’s

The Brewers’ most intriguing aspect is that it isn’t simply Burnes. Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta have both pitched well, with ERAs around 3.00. Peralta did not throw enough innings to qualify, but he did hold hitters to a.165 batting average. Then there’s Josh Hader to bring everything to a conclusion. It’s no surprise that the Brewers have the most shutouts in the majors. Schoenfield’s

Milwaukee will miss Devin Williams, who is out with a fractured hand after the wall won, but not nearly as much as some believe: Atlanta hits changeups better than any other club in baseball, with Williams throwing them more than 63 percent of the time. Aaron Ashby, a left-handed rookie, will more than fill in as a pillar on the Josh Hader Bridge. Passan –

88-73 | NL East champions | World Series chances of 7.4 percent

Rounding up the odds

MIL: 45.4 percent vs. NLDS: 45.4 percent

33.2 percent vs. LAD in the NLCS | 34.2 percent vs. SF in the NLCS

Why they may be able to go far: The Braves’ record infield production has received a lot of attention, but after chasing.500 for much of the season, the team’s surge to a repeat division championship was largely due to better pitching. Maintaining this level of play is crucial if the Braves are to play into October. The starters have been good throughout the season, but their ERA after the trade deadline is the best in baseball. Before the deadline, the bullpen was ranked 18th in ERA. Since then, it has been the fifth. With a powerful but inconsistent offense, the Braves must maintain a high quality of pitching. Doolittle’s quote

In the wild card and divisional rounds, what are the most intriguing storylines? Take a look.

What might cause them to return home early: Atlanta has been a powerful first-pitch-hitting club capable of hitting home runs in bunches since the trade deadline, when they acquired a lot of replacement alternatives for their depleted outfield. But what happens when you’re up against playoff pitching that’s at the top of its game? Only Kansas City has a higher overall swing rate in the majors, and the Braves outshine everyone else in the NL bracket. At first pitches, no team has ever swung more. This has led to some offensive inconsistency, but it’s also how Atlanta’s toolbox looks after Ronald Acuna Jr.’s injury and Marcell Ozuna’s off-field issues. Doolittle’s quote

Charlie Morton, who won both Game 7 of the ALCS and Game 7 of the World Series for the Astros in 2017, is the most probable October hero (the only pitcher ever to do that). Last postseason, he won three of his four playoff starts for the Rays, and his lifetime playoff record is 7-3 with a 3.38 ERA. He’s been pitching his best baseball of 2021 during the last two months, and he’s on a roll heading into October. Schoenfield’s

The Braves’ most thrilling feature: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, and Dansby Swanson were just the second club in baseball history to have all four infielders hit 25 or more home runs. Freeman is the one to keep an eye on. Is this his last season with the Braves? He’s a free agent, and although many anticipate him to return to Atlanta, the reality remains that he’s still unsigned, which means he might be playing somewhere in 2022. Schoenfield’s

Will Smith will trend on Twitter at least three times in October, according to one daring forecast. Passan –

Los Angeles Dodgers

106-56 | NL wild card | World Series chances of 15.3 percent

Rounding up the odds

STL: 63.1 percent vs. WC: 63.1 percent

51.6 percent in the NLDS vs. SF

NLCS: 63.5 percent against MIL | 66.8% vs ATL

Why they may be able to go far: Almost every forward-looking indicator you can think of portrays the Dodgers as baseball’s greatest club. Except for two things: The Giants won more games and won the season series against the Dodgers. Despite this, the Dodgers’ projected record, based on run differential, was about 108 wins, far and by the greatest total in baseball. Some of this was due to L.A.’s renowned depth: In low-leverage situations, the Dodgers outscored opponents by more than 100 runs, the most in baseball. But, lest you believe L.A.’s record is exaggerated, the Dodgers also topped the league in differential for high- and medium-leverage situations. Doolittle’s quote

Adam Wainwright may be the one who sends them home early. The wild-card game is sometimes referred to as a coin toss. That’s partly accurate, but only if the brilliance of the opposing sides could be used to weight the coin. The Dodgers are a big favorite at home against a club they dominated in the NL standings. But it’s just one game, and even if St. Louis’ chances are 4-in-10, it’ll be a nail-biter. In terms of Wainwright, he says: Despite the increased competition, his ERA is almost a half-run better in 109 playoff innings than in the regular season. You may have also noticed that St. Louis is on the move. Doolittle’s quote

Walker Buehler is the most probable October hero. He had a couple of hitches in September that knocked him out of the Cy Young race, including a poor start against the Giants, but he’s been clutch in the playoffs before, and he’s coming off his finest regular season. He has a 2.35 ERA in 11 playoff starts, 83 strikeouts in 612/3 innings, and a strikeout rate of 12.2 per nine innings, up from 9.8 in the regular season. Even when facing him for the second time in a series, his six-pitch repertoire makes it tough to prepare for him. And with Clayton Kershaw’s playoff availability in question after an injury in his last start of the regular season, Buehler’s performance will be even more crucial for the Dodgers. Schoenfield’s

The Dodgers’ most exciting aspect is that Mookie Betts and Trea Turner are two of the game’s most dynamic all-around talents. We witnessed Betts’ effect with only his glove and legs in October, and Turner is even quicker. Betts leads off and Turner bats third, with Corey Seager wedged between them, according to Dave Roberts’ batting order. The only problem is that neither Betts nor Turner has ever hit that well in the playoffs, with Betts hitting.258/.343/.409 in 31 games and Turner hitting.233/.286/.302 in 27 games. Schoenfield’s

One bold prediction for October: Corey Seager wins his second straight World Series MVP award, this time with more walks than strikeouts. Passan –

90-72 | NL wild card | World Series chances of 1.4 percent

Rounding up the odds

LAD: 36.9% vs. WC: 36.9%

34.4 percent in the NLDS vs. 34.4 percent in the SF

43.2 percent vs. MIL in the NLCS | 46.8% vs. ATL in the NLCS

WS: 37.3 percent vs TB | 38.8% against HOU | 41.4 percent against CHW | 44.4 percent against BOS | 46.9% against NYY

Why they might go far: The Cardinals do things their way, and even if it means going against the grain, they always finish above.500, and they’re back in the playoffs. The Cardinals’ last push, which featured a franchise-record 17-game hitting streak, brings them crashing into Dodger Stadium. St. Louis, on the other hand, didn’t simply become hot at a crucial moment when its playoff chances were fading; the club completely transformed itself. Hurlers who walked an excessive number of hitters were fired. Edmundo Sosa mostly played shortstop. The bullpen was reorganized. St. Louis has had baseball’s fifth-best run differential since the middle of August. Doolittle’s quote

What might send them home early: The Cardinals are in the bottom five in the league in terms of walks issued and strikeouts. They play excellent defense and have been successful at minimizing home runs. The Cardinals have been considerably better at preventing walks since the trade deadline, but their strikeout rate is the lowest in the league, and their home runs have increased somewhat. All of this leads to problems against disciplined, strong teams like the Dodgers and Giants, whom the Cardinals must defeat in order to advance to the postseason. You can’t count out the Redbirds this year, but it’ll be a long journey. Doolittle’s quote

Yadier Molina, who has a history of big hits in the playoffs, is the most probable October hero for Cardinals fans. He has four home runs, 36 RBIs, and a.699 OPS in 101 career playoff games, but he hasn’t been particularly impressive in the postseason. Let’s start with Paul Goldschmidt, who has been on fire in the second half of the season, hitting.391 with seven home runs during the team’s 17-game winning streak. Schoenfield’s

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The Cardinals’ most exciting feature: Few things in baseball are as thrilling as seeing Harrison Bader race the bases or chase down balls in center field, his long blond hair streaming out from under his helmet or cap like some Greek hero on his way to Thermopylae. Unless it’s Tyler O’Neill, who has the physique of a Greek god and the speed of Cool Papa Bell. Bader’s peak sprint speed is in the 97th percentile of all players, while O’Neill’s is in the 98th percentile. Schoenfield’s

One bold prediction for October: They will not win 17 games in a row. Passan –

American League

100-62 | AL East champions | World Series chances of 17.0 percent

Rounding up the odds

63.6 percent vs. BOS | 63.9 percent vs. NYY in ALDS

ALCS: 52.8 percent vs Houston | 55.5 percent against Chicago

Why they may be able to go far: So many postseason games come down to who wins the late innings, and the Rays seem to be in an especially good position to win those close games this year. Tampa Bay, by far, got the least mileage out of their starting pitchers this season among the postseason clubs. The Rays are ready to match up when the middle innings arrive. It’s the way they’re made. Their bullpen depth not only protects leads, but also keeps the Rays in games when they fall behind. It’s why the Rays finished the season with the most comeback victories. Doolittle’s quote

What might cause them to return home early: During the regular season, the Rays scored a lot of runs, but it wasn’t a well-balanced assault. The Rays are the third-most reliant on home runs to score runs among postseason teams, and no team’s plate appearances were dominated by a greater proportion of the three genuine outcomes. Of course, in the playoffs, when stringing rallies together is difficult, this strategy may be effective. The Rays must, though, continue to smash the ball out of the park for it to work. If they don’t, the offense’s regular-season version didn’t have a lot of options. Doolittle’s quote

October’s most probable hero is: Here’s your year’s most amusing statistic: The Rays had a higher run total than the Blue Jays. There isn’t a Triple Crown contender. They lack a world-record-breaking second baseman. They don’t have four guys who have hit 100 home runs. They had the most strikeouts in the league. With runners on base, they smash home runs and provide crucial hits. As a result, this might be anybody. Nelson Cruz has playoff experience, despite the fact that he hasn’t ripped it up since joining the Twins, and he might even face right-handed pitching. Pick of the Day: Since the middle of August, Drew Rasmussen has made eight starts and has a 1.46 ERA with one home run allowed in 37 innings, but he hasn’t pitched more than five innings in any of them. Schoenfield’s

Rookies are the most exciting aspect of the Rays. Wander Franco, a 20-year-old rookie shortstop, is helping the Rays win. Only one other 20-year-old shortstop, Travis Jackson of the Giants in 1924 (who is already in the Hall of Fame), has played in the World Series. Franco, of course, is no average 20-year-old, and he shone in the last two months. Last year’s playoff hero, Randy Arozarena, is still a rookie. Shane McClanahan has been the best starter on the squad. Shane Baz, who has thrown less than 20 innings in his career, may be in the rotation. Luis Patino, a rookie, has a chance to start. J.P. Feyereisen is an important reliever for the team. Schoenfield’s

Franco will establish an American League record for most total bases in a game by a player under the age of 21 in October, according to one daring prediction. Mickey Mantle and Rafael Devers are now tied for fifth place. What is the record in the big leagues? In 1996, Andruw Jones, at 19 years old, wrote the song “Nine.” Passan –

95-67 | AL West champions | World Series chances of 13.9 percent

Rounding up the odds

ALDS: 53.8 percent vs. CHW: 53.8 percent

ALCS: 47.2 percent vs TB | 62.4 percent against BOS | 62.6 percent against NYY

WS: 38.4 percent vs LAD | 41.9 percent against SF | 53.2 percent against MIL | 59.3 percent against ATL | 61.2 percent against STL

Why they may be able to go far: If the Astros’ offense is firing on all cylinders, they will have the most well-balanced offense in the playoffs. The Astros are a team that hits for average, doesn’t strike out, hits lefties and righties, and hits at home, on the road, and in scoring situations. Houston has a lot of power hitters, but they don’t rely on home runs to score runs. It’s a strategy that strikes a good balance between patience and aggressiveness. Naturally, pitching becomes more difficult in October, and the Rays, who may face the Astros in the ALCS if they progress, stifled Houston’s bats throughout the regular season. Houston, on the other hand, has a more diverse offensive toolbox than any other club in the tournament. Doolittle’s quote

What might cause them to return home early: Houston’s postseason pitching staff will play a role, but the Astros may be in danger if their starters fall behind too often. During the regular season, the Astros’ starters and relievers both placed in the lowest third of baseball in terms of walks allowed. Even more concerning is the fact that only the Royals threw a lower percentage of first-pitch strikes, which may be an issue when facing playoff-caliber offenses. The Astros allowed a.563 OPS after taking the lead on the opening pitch; when they didn’t, that figure jumped to.923. Doolittle’s quote

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Lance McCullers Jr., the most probable October hero, can be as unhittable as any pitcher in the game when his curveball is functioning well and he’s placing his fastball. Batters are slamming the ball. .148 against the slider and 144 against the curve (which he throws to lefties) (which he throws slightly harder and to right-handed batters). If it counts, he doesn’t give up many home runs and has plenty of playoff experience. He’s the most probable Houston pitcher to put together a stretch of four or five excellent starts in a succession. Schoenfield’s

The Astros’ most intriguing aspect: Don’t we have to consider Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve to be one of the best double-play combinations of all time? Correa debuted in the league in 2015, making this their sixth season together. Correa is sixth among position players in Baseball-Reference WAR during that time, while Altuve ranked seventh. With Correa about to leave Houston for free agency, these may be their last games in the middle. Schoenfield’s

One bold October prediction: When outfielder Jose Siri’s playoff performance leads them — or a similarly spoken announcer — to unintentionally activate their iPhone’s voice assistant, tens of thousands of fans will get upset. Passan –

93-69 | AL Central champions | World Series chances of 9.6%

Rounding up the odds

HOU: 46.2 percent vs. ALDS: 46.2 percent

ALCS: 44.5 percent vs TB; 61.3 percent against BOS; 61.6 percent against NYY

WS: 35.8 percent vs LAD | 39.3 percent against SF | 50.5 percent against MIL | 56.6 percent against ATL | 58.6 percent against STL

Why they may be able to go far: Only the Brewers had a greater strikeout percentage than the White Sox’s pitching staff, which had the greatest average pitch velocity among playoff teams. In other words, Chicago is in desperate need of bats. The velocity is partially due to the Sox’s abundance of hard throwers, but it’s also due to their reliance on high, hard pitches. Tony La Russa can parade Michael Kopech, Aaron Bummer, Garrett Crochet, Craig Kimbrel, and Liam Hendricks into the bullpen to preserve a lead if Chicago’s starters can get through the middle innings in decent condition. This group was created for the month of October. Doolittle’s quote

Chicago’s greatest issue may simply be the way the bracket is set up, which could send them home early. The White Sox boast one of the most varied offenses in the playoffs, but their first opponent, Houston, has the same quality, if not more so. On the mound, Chicago’s pitching strengths include velocity and strikeouts. Houston has the lowest strikeout rate of any club in the league. Houston, on the other hand, didn’t do well against high-velocity opponents (at least 96 mph). Still, this is a tough matchup for the White Sox, who seem to have a better chance against whoever they play in the ALCS if they can just get there. Doolittle’s quote

Luis Robert’s partial-season statistics haven’t gotten much notice, but he was hitting.347.385/.574 going into the last weekend of the regular season, including.365 after returning on Aug. 9 with 24 extra-base hits in 40 games. From 2020 to 2021, his swing-and-miss percentage has dropped from 41.5 percent to 28 percent. If the White Sox make a run, it will very certainly be because Robert continues to terrorize opposing pitchers. Schoenfield’s

The most exciting aspect about the White Sox: Although Tim Anderson is the self-proclaimed most exciting player in baseball, Robert gets the nod here. He’s big, he’s quick, he smashes home runs like a pro, and he’s a natural center fielder (he won the Gold Glove as a rookie last season). But, Tim, you’re entertaining to watch as well! Schoenfield’s

One bold October prediction: Of the 10 postseason teams, the White Sox’s bullpen will throw the most fastballs and have the highest average fastball velocity. Passan –

92-70 | AL wild card | World Series chances of 6.3 percent

Rounding up the odds

TB: 36.4 percent vs. ALDS: 36.4 percent

ALCS: 36.1 percent against. Houston | 38.7% vs. Chicago

WS: 26.9% vs LAD | 29.9% against SF | 40.4 percent against MIL | 46.5 percent against ATL | 55.6 percent against STL

Why they may be able to go far: Around 50 players from the American League will compete in the AL bracket, with at least 250 plate appearances throughout the season. The Red Sox have seven of the top 25 OPS players, demonstrating the depth and consistency of one of baseball’s most productive attacks. J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers are well-known, but Kyle Schwarber and Bobby Dalbec have been two of the hottest hitters in the majors in the second half of the season. The offense has performed better at Fenway Park than on the road, but this is a seasoned bunch that can score runs. Doolittle’s quote

Pitching may be the factor that sends them home early. The Red Sox will allow the most runs against average and have the highest OPS of any playoff team. In summary, the offensive has been the key to Boston’s success throughout the regular season. Despite Chris Sale’s return to play, just 25% of the Boston rotation’s outings resulted in quality starts, and the trends haven’t improved much as the season has gone. This puts excessive strain on the Boston bullpen, which is already dealing with a shaky back end. Alex Cora’s task will be to locate the perfect arm for the appropriate high-stakes scenario. Doolittle’s quote

The most probable scenario sees the Boston offense stepping up and pounding its way to a championship, but you’ll need some pitching along the way, and Nathan Eovaldi is the greatest chance to go off. Chris Sale has pitched well since returning from Tommy John surgery, but his fastball has maxed out around 95 mph, so he may not be able to go long into games. Eovaldi can handle a greater workload, pitch on short rest or in relief (as he did last year), and he’s developed into a strike-throwing machine who’s been sparing with home homers. Schoenfield’s

The Red Sox’s most thrilling feature is how hard they hit the ball. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays were 1-2-3 in hard-hit rate (42 percent on balls hit at 95 mph or above), but the Red Sox led the majors in wOBA on contact. All those doubles off the Green Monster helped, but the lineup is full with big, powerful guys, including Kyle Schwarber, who has been the team’s greatest hitter down the stretch. Schoenfield’s

One bold prediction for October: Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, and Kyle Schwarber will not be the Red Sox batters who regularly smash the ball hard (95 mph). Bobby Dalbec, a rookie, will take the field. Passan –

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the MLB playoff format for 2021?

The MLB playoff format for 2021 is a best-of-five divisional series with the winners of each division facing off in a best-of-seven league championship series.